Can Markets Resume the Stalled Rally?
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The S&P 500, Dow Jones Industrial Average, and Nasdaq 100 all traded lower on Tuesday.
SPX Daily Chart
Despite the intense two days of selling, we have yet to see any technical criteria suggesting a crash is imminent.
Our Real Motion Trading Indicator above displays downward moderated momentum and forecasts a stalled rally and reversal.
The dots above represent Real Motion (trading momentum), and notice they never cross over the upper Bollinger band.
They then proceeded to retreat lower, telegraphing stalled momentum and a failed rally attempt.
This same Real Motion pattern is illustrated on each chart.
SPX Daily Chart
Last weekend in our weekly Big View commentary, we highlighted that all the indices had nice technical gains.
In addition to our proprietary trading indicators, various momentum oscillators, technical gauges, and market phases, there are also retracement levels associated with the Fibonacci sequence that many traders watch.
They are 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 78.6%. These Fibonacci levels correspond to previous support and resistance points.
If the market continues to sell off, these levels will likely come into play to warn of further technical weakness.
IWM Daily Chart
Today, Grandpa Russell also held above the 50-day moving average and found support around the 23.6% Fibonacci level, as displayed above.
Remember that having a trading strategy that takes advantage of volatility is your greatest protection and that retracements are a normal part of the trading process.
ETF Summary
S&P 500 (NYSE:SPY): The 50-week MA looms above as resistance 410 — until that clears, this could return to support at the 50-DMA or 380.
Russell 2000 (IWM): Similarly, 190 is resistance, and now looking at 177 as support and must hold
Dow (DIA): As only index above the 50-WMA, support at 329 is key.
Nasdaq (QQQ): Still the weakest index. Hovering on major support at 278 or trouble ahead.
KRE (Regional Banks): After weeks of sideways action, this failed with the last major support at 57.00.
SMH (Semiconductors): 212 support to hold, and if this can lead, then 230 is the place to clear and take notice.
IYT: Another one to fail at the 50-WMA. Now, 213 to 214 is key support.
iShares Biotechnology ETF (NASDAQ:IBB): This has been the year of do not chase the breakouts. Like DIA above the 50-WMA and will see if it holds 127.
SPDR® S&P Retail ETF (NYSE:XRT): Never got the clearance over 67.00, so now we watch 63 as a major support
