Dow Jones Rally Halts; Investors Fear OPEC Cuts
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The first day of the week was filled with ups and downs, but today the market gets ready for 4-days of jam-packed economic releases.
Price declines were mainly seen in equity markets, with the Dow Jones forming its first decline in over a week and the S&P 500 seeing its largest decline since Nov. 9. The market generally saw a risk-off sentiment. However, the futures market is indicating a positive start to the day.
Crude Oil
Crude oil on the other hand, dropped to a new yearly price low and later found a large surge of buyers.
The price rebound was mainly triggered by large orders as market participants looked to benefit from the discounted price and also the weaker US Dollar. Traders are also cautious as to what price caps may do to supply.
Crude oil price chart.
Currently, EU members are not able to agree on the price cap. Some nations, such as Poland and France, wish to punish Russia further by lowering the price cap to $60 per barrel.
At the same time, others are not willing to further pressure their economies, such as Greece, Germany, and Cyprus, who are requesting a $65-$70 price cap.
Lastly, investors are concerned OPEC may again look to reduce production levels to support prices. This is something that was done in the first week of October.
US Dollar
This morning, the US Dollar Index has declined by 0.50% but remains above 106.00. The EUR/USD managed to cross to a new price move but is currently moving within a retracement.
Investors are waiting for the Consumer Confidence scheduled for this afternoon and tomorrow’s Fed Chairman speech. Investors are hoping for more clarification from the Fed head.
EUR/USD price chart.
Experts believe the terminal rate will remain the same, but the regulator will lower the size of the rate hikes. In addition, investors will look at Friday’s employment figures to see how resilient the employment sector has been to the economic decline and high interest rates.
Dow Jones
Dow Jones saw a strong and clear downward trend throughout yesterday’s New York Session. The price declined by 1.30% without forming a single bullish retracement.
This morning, the index has slightly increased but remains on the lower swing and is experiencing a weaker movement than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100. Traders looking to short the asset further will be aiming for a breakout of the $33,798 level.
Dow Jones price chart.
When looking at technical analysis, we have indications of a downward trend in the short-medium term and a retracement in the shorter term. Wave analysis shows the price has broken onto a lower swing, indicating a downward trend.
The latest Moving Average crossover is downwards and was formed at the end of yesterday’s Asian Session. However, the Stochastic Oscillator has crossed upwards on the 1-hour Chart, and the price remains above the 75-day EMA on the 4-hour chart.
An influential factor that not many traders are aware of is the bond market. The bond market has declined significantly over the past month, which has supported the Dow Jones and potential lower rate hikes.
However, the Bond market has slightly improved over the past few days, making it more attractive for investors. This may support a downward trend if bond yields continue to increase.
However, the index was supported by the earnings report released recently by Pinduoduo (NASDAQ:PDD). The company’s revenue and earnings per share increased above economists’ expectations. The stock price increased by more than 12% after the market closed.
During Monday’s trading session, only 5 of the 30 stocks ended the day at a higher stock price. At the same time, the strongest declines were seen amongst Boeing (NYSE:BA), 3M Company (NYSE:MMM), and Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS).
