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EUR/USD Daily Chart
- EUR/USD bulls are continuing to be disappointed with every rally.
- Right now, the market is forming a triangle over the past month.
- Bulls need to get above a credible major lower high (September high) to convince traders that the market is no longer in a bear trend.
- Right now, the market is clearly in a trading range, and the bulls are starting to get multiple closes above the moving average, which is a sign of strength.
- Bears are trying hard to get a second leg down from the 5-bar bear micro channel that began on October 10.
- The odds still favor a second leg up and a test of the October 4 close due to trapped buy-the-close bulls. Some of the bulls who bought the October 4 close scaled in lower and used the past couple of trading days to exit breakeven on the entire trade, which is partly why the market is selling off today.
- Overall, the market is still in a trading range, and until one side gets a clear breakout, the probability is close to neutral but slightly favors the bulls.