Economic Modern Family’s Engine Idles While Growth Goes Fast and Furious
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Let’s get right to what the charts and our tools are telling:
First, I look at moving averages and phases. Second, I look at Real Motion and momentum to see if there is a divergence to price. Then, I check out our Leadership indicator which tells us how an instrument is performing against a benchmark.
I look at weekly and monthly timeframes as well as the daily charts.
And now that it is relevant, I look at the calendar range.
Naturally, I have a few other considerations, but for now, we can go with these:
IWM-Daily Chart
The Russell 2000 or Granddad
Moving Averages on the Daily, Bullish.
Momentum indicator shows no divergence as momo sits on the moving averages as does price.
Leadership is weak, well underperforming the benchmark. Sustainable?
Weekly charts show price on major support between 183-188.
The monthly chart shows a 2-year business cycle expansion (above the 23-month MA) with resistance at December 2023 highs.
The calendar range shows price sitting on the January lows or the very pivotal 190.
Either an incredible low risk buy, or fair warning, especially considering this:
IWM vs QQQ Chart
iShares Russell 2000 (NYSE:IWM) keeps struggling to keep up with growth.
XRT-Daily Chart
This is the Daily chart of Granny Retail XRT.
The similarity between XRT and IWM is clear.
Moving Averages on the Daily, Bullish.
Real Motion shows no divergence as momentum sits on the moving averages as does price.
Leadership is weak, well underperforming the benchmark.
Weekly charts show price on major support between 64-68.
The monthly chart has price above the 23-month MA for the first time since 2021, while still far from the December 2023 highs.
The calendar range shows price sitting on the January lows or the very pivotal 68.00.
Both Gramps and Granny are critical components to the market and economy. Both reflect the rightful hesitancy for predicting the Fed’s next move on rates.
Both are well-underperforming growth stocks yet sit on major support.
I hope this gives you a guide to this week. It sure does it for me as I am watching carefully for the in the overall market now that QQQs and Semiconductors have gone fast and furious.
Speaking of Sister Semiconductors is part of the Family, as are Biotechnology, Regional Banks, Transportation, and Bitcoin.
All have similar patterns to Gramps IWM and Granny XRT which tells us the whole Family has the engine idling and will either put themselves in gear or run out of gas.
ETF Summary
- S&P 500 (SPY) New all-time high making 480 the new 460
- Russell 2000 (IWM) 195 resistance 188-190 support
- Dow (DIA) New all-time high here too-375 now support
- Nasdaq (QQQ) And ATH here as well-408-409 support
- Regional banks (KRE) Back over 50 which needs to hold
- Semiconductors (SMH) Wings-180 now support
- Transportation (IYT) 254 support with 262 resistance
- Biotechnology (IBB) 135 pivotal
- Retail (XRT) Held support at 65 but still needs to get back over 70.00
