Midterm Elections And U.S. CPI Data To Drive Markets This Month
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Last week was a busy week for the financial trading markets, and this week won’t be any different. Investors continue to focus on the US employment figures from last week. The JOLTS Job Openings increased to 10.75 million, the NFP read 261,000, the Average Hourly Earnings increased to 0.4% and the Unemployment Rate increased to 3.7%.
In general, the employment figures were positive and showed resilience, as they have over the past 6 months. The only slight concern was the Unemployment Rate which increased above the 3.6% in line with predictions. Another concern is the current level of layoffs from large companies. The latest reports are from Meta and Twitter, which have confirmed many employees were laid off.
This is likely to continue to influence the US Dollar and US stocks, but investors are also turning their attention toward the Midterm elections. Price movements may be unclear before the election results but will likely take a clearer direction afterward. However, the most important announcement this week, not only for the USD but also for Gold, Silver, and US Equities, is the Consumer Price Index.
The CPI results are expected to show that inflation has increased from 0.4% to 0.6% — this is the highest since July 2022. The CPI reading is likely to be the most influential event of the week. The Core CPI figures were expected to decline slightly to 0.5% from 0.6%. However, even with the decline, a rate of 0.5% is still considered extremely high. The Core CPI figures should typically be between 0.1% and 0.3%.
Crude Oil: Technical View
The price of crude oil opened on a negative market gap along with most US assets, but they have all continued to increase in value thereafter. The price of oil does not show any signs of major declines as the price remains above most moving averages. However, the price is mainly being driven by fundamentals at the moment.
Crude oil price chart.
Investors are currently concerned about the level of supply after G7 nations and other certain “friend nations” agreed to introduce price caps on oil prices from Russia. Russia has already advised that it will not agree to this and will simply “sell their oil elsewhere.” On the other hand, President Biden advised that the US Government will sell a further 15 million barrels from their US reserves.
Bitcoin: Technical View
Bitcoin took a considerable hit after the latest set of employment figures as well as Powell’s forward guidance. The instrument has now moved back into the previous price range seen towards the end of October, and there is a clear attempt to correct back to $20,050 fully.
Investors are still following the Twitter and Elon Musk story, hoping that the acquisition will likely support the demand for cryptocurrencies. Twitter is expected to allow users to buy and sell NFTs with Dogecoin as its base currency.
Bitcoin price chart.
The overall market capitalization for cryptocurrencies has actually increased for a 4th consecutive week, which is positive for the market. On the other hand, Bitcoin’s market share has declined over the past week from 39.6% to 38.6%.
Dow Jones
The price of the Dow Jones Industrial Average is on the rise again during this morning’s futures market. The price has increased by under 1% since the market opened, though investors are still cautious about the proximity of recent support levels at $32,617 and $33,073.
Dow Jones price chart.
The index will be influenced by the next and one of their last earnings reports — Walt Disney Company (NYSE:DIS). Disney is expected to release their earnings report tomorrow after the market closes. The company’s Earnings Per Share is expected to decline significantly from $1.09 to $0.60.
However, as mentioned at the very start of the article, the most influential event is most likely this Thursday’s CPI figures.
