Analysis & Opinion
Bitcoin Might Retreat Before Rallying to 100K: Key Levels to Watch for Dip-Buyers
26.03.2024
Bitcoin Might Retreat Before Rallying to 100K: Key Levels to Watch for Dip-Buyers
BTC/USD +1.15% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to Watchlist Add Position Position added successfully to: Please name your holdings…
GOLD: Undervalued Gold Mining Giant That Should Prosper in a Higher-Inflation Era
26.03.2024
GOLD: Undervalued Gold Mining Giant That Should Prosper in a Higher-Inflation Era
XAU/USD -0.01% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to Watchlist Add Position Position added successfully to: Please name your holdings…
S&P 500 E-Mini Bears Hoping for Another Follow-Through Bar
26.03.2024
S&P 500 E-Mini Bears Hoping for Another Follow-Through Bar
MEDc1 +0.14% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to Watchlist Add Position Position added successfully to: Please name your holdings…
S&P 500: Uncertainty Looms Ahead of Key Economic Data
26.03.2024
S&P 500: Uncertainty Looms Ahead of Key Economic Data
NDX -0.34% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to Watchlist Add Position Position added successfully to: Please name your holdings…
S&P 500: Bullish Trend Shows Signs of Exhaustion — Time to Rethink Allocations?
26.03.2024
S&P 500: Bullish Trend Shows Signs of Exhaustion — Time to Rethink Allocations?
US500 -0.31% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to Watchlist Add Position Position added successfully to: Please name your holdings…
Apple: Double-Top Looming for the Tech Giant? Watch These Levels for Clues
26.03.2024
Apple: Double-Top Looming for the Tech Giant? Watch These Levels for Clues
AAPL -0.83% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to Watchlist Add Position Position added successfully to: Please name your holdings…
美国银行业危机一周年系列之-《巴塞尔3终局》解析
26.03.2024
美国银行业危机一周年系列之-《巴塞尔3终局》解析
1988年巴塞尔协议1的制定是全球金融监管史的一项里程碑事件，随着后续银行业危机频发，巴塞尔协议也逐步改进，并在2004年制定了巴塞尔协议2；2008年金融危机后制定了巴塞尔协议3；2023年美国银行业共有5家银行倒闭，分别为Silvergate、硅谷银行、签字银行、第一共和银行以及Heartland Tri-state银行；其中硅谷银行、签字银行和第一共和银行的资产规模均为千亿美元以上。 时间来到了一年后的现在，2023Q4美国银行业的资产负债表账面流动性上升，相关风险因素也逐步褪去，金融监管也对本次银行业危机进行了重新审视，新的巴塞尔协议由此产生。 新版巴塞尔协议被称为Endgame（终局）版本，和之前的巴塞尔版本更新一样，对银行的资本运算添加了更多复杂的处理，以求防止本次危机事件再次发生。 此版本巴塞尔协议由美联储、FDIC以及OCC于2023年7月共同出版，通过对政策一些技术性的改革，新协议要求银行增加资本，并且将自有模型计算改成标准方式。 根据巴塞尔3的协议规定，风险加权资产（RWA）需要将信用风险的RWA、市场风险的RWA、操作风险的RWA以及流动性风险的RWA全部相加得出，且各风险RWA的计算方式涉及标准法及自有模型法进行计算。根据PWC的总结，巴塞尔协议3终版对原版本的更新大致如下： 信用风险 1. 部分贷款将根据贷款价值比（Loan-to-Value）的范围而相应增加风险权重，比如住房贷款原来的风险权重为50%，在新版中，银行需要确定住房贷款的还款现金流是否来自房产本身的现金流（租金），并且按照LTV来对贷款的风险权重进行增长。 2. 消费贷款将作为一个新的细分项单独列出，风险权重预计为10%。 3. 当银行对投资级债券进行投资时，需要考虑到风险敞口并且风险权重为65%，当投资级债券被作为金融抵押品时，也需要被进行测试。 4. 当贷款的组合中存在债权人出现交叉违约时，将增加违约风险权重。 5. 当银行无法提供保证其投资标的头寸的透明度时，将采取惩罚性的1250%权重里计算这部分RWA。6. 所有银行都将采用标准方法来计算对手方信用风险。 市场风险： 1. …
Bubble Jitters? Here’s How to Invest Defensively and Still Make a Buck
26.03.2024
Bubble Jitters? Here’s How to Invest Defensively and Still Make a Buck
US500 -0.31% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to Watchlist Add Position Position added successfully to: Please name your holdings…
Dollar eases from highs as intervention warning props up yen
26.03.2024
Dollar eases from highs as intervention warning props up yen
USD/CNY +0.11% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to Watchlist Add Position Position added successfully to: Please name your holdings…
Trade Wars Redux? China’s Manufacturing Glut and Its Global Implications
26.03.2024
Trade Wars Redux? China’s Manufacturing Glut and Its Global Implications
Copper -0.53% Add to/Remove from Watchlist Add to Watchlist Add Position Position added successfully to: Please name your holdings…