Gold Prices Hit Highest Level Since May, Oil Settles Higher
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Emini S&P December futures still just drifting aimlessly after the long holiday weekend. We are still holding just above minor support at 4542/38 to keep bulls in control & perhaps on the next leg higher we can reach my next target of 4591/94, perhaps as far as 4615/19 eventually.
Strong support again at 4542/38. Longs need stops below 4533.
A break lower risks a slide to 4505/00 & even 4480/75 is possible.
S&P Futures-4-Hr Chart
Nasdaq December futures edged higher to 16173 last week as we look for 16300 next target. Further gains can target 16390/410.
We have held a very tight range from around 15940/920 up to 16090/16120 for a week.
The best buying opportunity should be at 15850/830 and longs need stops below 15770. We should also have strong support at 15700/660.
Nasdaq Futures-4-Hr Chart
Emini Dow Jones December continues higher through 35080/35100 to my next targets of 35170/190 and 35230 & now we are edging above 35400/450, so we look for 35570/590. Further gains this week can target 35650/670.
Support again at 35390/360. Longs need stops below 35250.
DJI Futures-4-Hr Chart
Global stock index and Dollar movement
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Global stock indexes advanced on Tuesday.
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The US dollar fell to a 3-1/2 month low, marking its biggest monthly drop in a year.
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Federal Reserve official signals that the central bank may consider rate cuts if inflation continues to ease.
Fed Governor Christopher Waller’s Comments
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Waller suggested the possibility of lowering the Fed policy rate in the coming months if inflation continues to decrease.
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He expressed increasing confidence that the current interest rate setting would be sufficient to lower inflation to the Fed’s 2% target.
Fed Governor Michelle Bowman’s Remarks
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Bowman mentioned that the central bank might need to raise borrowing costs further to bring inflation back down to its target.
Market Response and Rate Cut Expectations
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Traders increased bets for the first rate cut, with March being a possibility.
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Probability for a 25 basis-point cut rose to nearly 33% from 21.5% on Monday, according to CME Group’s (NASDAQ:CME) Fedwatch tool.
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Majority expected a cut, at least one notch, in May.
Wall Street Indexes Performance
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Wall Street indexes closed higher.
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Dow Jones rose 0.24%, S&P 500 gained 0.10%, and Nasdaq Composite added 0.29%.
US Consumer Confidence Survey
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A survey showed U.S. consumer confidence rose in November after three months of declines.
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However, households still anticipated a recession over the next year.
Upcoming Economic Data
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The spotlight will be on the U.S. October personal consumption expenditures report (PCE), including core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation measure).
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Eurozone consumer inflation figures are expected to provide clarity on price and monetary policy directions.
US treasury yields and Dollar Index
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After the Fed commentary, U.S. Treasury yields dipped, with benchmark 10-year notes down 6 basis points.
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Dollar index fell 0.368%, with the euro up 0.32% to $1.0988.
Currency movements
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Japanese yen strengthened 0.82% against the greenback.
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Sterling was last trading at $1.2694, up 0.55% on the day.
Gold prices
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Spot gold prices were up 1.4% at $2,040.79 an ounce, hitting their highest level since May.
Oil prices
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Oil prices settled higher on the possibility of OPEC+ extending or deepening supply cuts, a storm-related drop in Kazakh oil output, and the weaker US dollar.
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US crude settled up 2.07% at $76.41 per barrel, and Brent settled at $81.68, up 2.13% on the day.
Australian and New Zealand Dollars
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Australian dollar held near a four-month peak.
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New Zealand dollar scaled a roughly four-month top of $0.61495.
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Australian inflation data and a rate decision from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand are awaited.
